IT之家 · IT业界 · 10/7/2026, 11:48:56 PM
New Constructs Slams Anthropic IPO: Valuation at $150B, No Viable Model
Independent research firm New Constructs valued Anthropic at $150 billion, far below the expected $2 trillion, labeling its upcoming IPO as 'the most ridiculous of 2026.' The report highlights a $42 billion net loss in 2025 and argues that open-source competition renders Anthropic's business model unviable. Having previously predicted WeWork's IPO failure, New Constructs warns that this valuation represents significant risk to public investors rather than wealth creation.
SOURCE COVERAGEOriginal coverage
On October 8, Beijing time, CNBC reported that just as Anthropic prepares to list on the Nasdaq targeting a 150 billion (approximately RMB 1.01 trillion). The firm warned that Wall Street is facing "an unprecedented test of how easily investors can be misled."
In a report released on Tuesday, independent financial research firm New Constructs labeled Anthropic’s upcoming IPO as "the most absurd IPO of 2026."
The firm estimated that for Anthropic to justify its target valuation, its profits would need to be twice those of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable tech company, over the past year. Nvidia’s net income exceeded 4.6 billion in revenue (approximately RMB 30.875 billion) in 2025 but suffered a net loss of $42 billion (approximately RMB 281.901 billion).
Anthropic’s widening operating losses, combined with intensifying competition from numerous open-source models, led New Constructs to conclude: "We believe Anthropic lacks a viable business model."
"Since the emergence of open-source models, it has become clear that closed-source models will struggle to achieve profitability," the firm stated.
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, has long been known on Wall Street as an IPO skeptic, with a track record of accurate calls.
Prior to WeWork’s planned listing, New Constructs dubbed the coworking giant "the most absurd IPO of 2019." At the time, WeWork’s private market valuation had reached $47 billion (approximately RMB 315.461 billion). Just six weeks after New Constructs’ report was published, amid weak demand and intense criticism regarding its financial health, WeWork withdrew its IPO. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2023.
"While Anthropic contributes far more to society than WeWork did, an IPO at a $2 trillion valuation (approximately RMB 13.42 trillion) poses significantly greater risks and represents a larger-scale predation on U.S. capital markets," New Constructs wrote. The firm added that the purpose of this IPO is not to create wealth for public market investors, but to provide liquidity for Anthropic’s backers behind the scenes on Wall Street.
As of press time, Anthropic had not commented on the report.