New York Fed

The Fed's financial stability report shows 87% of polled market professionals now name AI as the top financial risk, up from 50% in spring. AI infrastructure debt surpassed $680B by October, roughly 5x all of 2023 and about 31% of investment-grade corporate borrowing, while big tech and chipmakers carry over $3T in future leases and guarantees that may understate true AI exposure. GPU makers guarantee chip values and invest in the same buyers, creating circular financing, and the largest US banks hold close to $1T of exposure to big tech and data center builders.