Anthropic IPO Valuation Expectations Slip to $1.2 Trillion, Halving in a Month
Anthropic begins its IPO roadshow next week with buyer-side valuations now discussed at $1.2–1.3 trillion, down from as high as $2 trillion in early October, with some considering only $1.1 trillion. This week's tech selloff and pressure on data-center stocks have hit the pricing thesis that AI capex keeps delivering hypergrowth. Priced in this range, Anthropic would be the first frontier model lab to go public, and whether it keeps its valuation edge over OpenAI may shape how far it concedes on price.
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宝玉 (@dotey) · 2026-11-08 02
Anthropic's expected IPO valuation drops again: potential buyers are discussing $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with the lowest bid at just $1.1 trillion
According to a Bloomberg report on November 6, Anthropic will begin its formal roadshow (pitching shares to institutional investors) next week. The valuation under discussion among potential buyers has already fallen to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some considering only $1.1 trillion. Sources say discussions are still ongoing and no final decision has been made; Anthropic declined to comment.
These are all buyer-side discussions. Anthropic has not yet announced an offering price, and the share count and price columns in the prospectus remain blank.
[From $2 trillion to $1.2 trillion in one month]
In early October, investors estimated Anthropic's fair value at up to $2 trillion.
In mid-October, after Anthropic presented its latest financial data to investors, expectations dropped to $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
After this week's US stock market selloff, they have now fallen to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion.
For reference, Anthropic's valuation during its private funding round in May this year was $965 billion, a round that pushed it ahead of OpenAI. OpenAI's current funding round targets a pre-money valuation of $1.25 trillion. Bloomberg believes that whether Anthropic can maintain its status of being "more valuable than OpenAI" may affect how low a price it is willing to accept.
[What happened in the stock market this week]
The US midterm elections were held on November 3, with Democrats winning both the Senate and the House. According to Reuters, Democrats made gains in states with concentrated data centers such as Texas and Georgia, where residents are increasingly opposed to the rapid expansion of data centers. Investors worry that Congress will hold more hearings and conduct more investigations into AI infrastructure, potentially slowing data center construction. On Wednesday, after the results came in, the broader market rose while data center-related stocks fell.
On Thursday (November 5), tech stocks plunged across the board. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 6.4%, wiping out $2.3 trillion in market value. Bloomberg said this was the largest single-day loss by dollar amount; by percentage decline, it was the largest since March 2020. Chip stocks fell the hardest, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 12% and Nvidia falling 9%. Another Bloomberg report said that quantitative funds trading automatically based on trends exacerbated the selloff. The VIX index, which measures market fear, rose to its highest level since April 2025.
According to Bloomberg, Anthropic will be the first frontier large-model company to go public. Buying its stock is essentially a bet that AI investment will continue to drive high growth. This week's market action struck directly at that expectation.
[What might happen next]
Under regulations, at least 15 days must pass after the prospectus is made public before the roadshow can begin. Anthropic publicly filed on October 26, so the earliest start would be next week, with pricing typically coming one week after the roadshow begins, followed by the start of trading. Earlier reports said it aims to list before Thanksgiving on November 26.
The first path: start the roadshow with a conservative size and valuation, then raise them if the response is good. Chip company Cerebras and design software company Figma both did this when they went public, ultimately raising more than initially stated—though both companies' share prices are now well below their offering prices.
The second path: delay. A company can wait weeks or even months after the prospectus is public before starting the roadshow, using the time to add a new quarter's financials. Bloomberg says this is the less appealing option.
Michael Field, Chief Equity Strategist at Morningstar, believes the cost of delaying is greater—damage to both actual costs and reputation, which would ultimately hurt valuation more in the long run. As long as the market stabilizes at current levels, Anthropic will accept a slightly lower valuation: "accept it and move forward."
Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, believes around $1 trillion is more prudent, with less risk of violent post-IPO price swings. He said on Bloomberg Radio that the "trillion-dollar IPO" headline doesn't matter; what matters is post-IPO trading. He cited SpaceX as an example: after listing, the stock surged for a few hours and then fell. In the current market environment, no one wants to see that kind of price action.
[What does this mean for ordinary investors]
Anthropic is not yet public, so ordinary investors cannot buy its stock right now. A lower valuation means a cheaper starting price at IPO; if set too high, the stock is likely to surge at the open and then fall back, hurting those who chase in first. The final price won't be known until the roadshow ends and formal pricing is set—the current numbers are all ranges being discussed by buyers.
Original article (Bloomberg): https://t.co/NAIgM6ahsI Bloomberg: Quant funds exacerbated the $2.3 trillion tech stock selloff: https://t.co/xrIMD964dY Reuters: Data center stocks fall after Democrats win Congress: https://t.co/C6Ijxdd5P2
↳ Quoting @AndrewCurran_ (Andrew Curran): Anthropic's valuation has now been roughly cut in half from the lofty $2 trillion heights that were being spoken of in financial circles only a month ago. On the plus side, if you are a believer, you can now get in for about half price. The IPO media blitz is starting Monday.
