Epoch AI: Annual Growth of AI Chip Compute Slows to 2.5x

1 reports archived1 independent sourcesupdated 10/30/2026, 06:13:49

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Epoch AI data reveals that the annual growth rate of compute power in AI chips sold quarterly has slowed to 2.5x since early 2024, down from approximately 6x in 2023 driven by the H100 launch. While total installed compute capacity still grows at 3.4x annually, the deceleration in new purchases suggests future overall growth will converge toward 2.5x. This trend may indicate a temporary lull between chip generations, with potential recovery expected as Nvidia ships its next-generation hardware.

LATEST/Epoch AI data reveals that the annual growth rate of compute power in AI chips sold quarterly has slowed to 2.5x since early 2024, down from approximately 6x in 2023 driven by the H100 launch. While total installed compute capacity still grows at 3.4x annually, the deceleration in new purchases suggests future overall growth will converge toward 2.5x. This trend may indicate a temporary lull between chip generations, with potential recovery expected as Nvidia ships its next-generation hardware.

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Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai)T2Oct 30, 06:13·68 pts
Epoch AI: Annual Growth of AI Chip Compute Slows to 2.5x
- Annual growth in compute power of AI chips sold quarterly dropped from ~6x in 2023 to 2.5x since early 2024.
- Total installed compute capacity currently grows at 3.4x/year but is projected to converge to 2.5x due to slowing new purchases.
- The slowdown may be a temporary inter-generation lull, potentially reversed by Nvidia's next-gen chip shipments.
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