Epoch AI: Annual Growth of AI Chip Compute Slows to 2.5x
Epoch AI data reveals that the annual growth rate of compute power in AI chips sold quarterly has slowed to 2.5x since early 2024, down from approximately 6x in 2023 driven by the H100 launch. While total installed compute capacity still grows at 3.4x annually, the deceleration in new purchases suggests future overall growth will converge toward 2.5x. This trend may indicate a temporary lull between chip generations, with potential recovery expected as Nvidia ships its next-generation hardware.
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Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) · 2026-10-29 22
the total computing power of all AI chips in use is growing 3.4x a year. per Epoch AI
but if each year’s new chip purchases grow only 2.5x, that total will eventually slow to about 2.5x as well.
↳ 引用 @EpochAIResearch (Epoch AI): The computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU.
Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations.
See our website for more details on the analysis:
