Epoch AI 数据：AI 芯片算力年增速降至 2.5 倍
Epoch AI 最新数据显示，自 2024 年初以来，每季度售出的 AI 芯片算力年增长率已放缓至 2.5 倍，远低于 2023 年由 H100 驱动的约 6 倍增速。尽管存量总算力仍以 3.4 倍速度增长，但新增采购的减速预示着未来整体增长将逐步收敛至 2.5 倍水平。这一趋势可能反映代际产品交替期的暂时性低谷，需关注 Nvidia 下一代芯片出货对销售数据的潜在提振。
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Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) · 2026-10-29 22
the total computing power of all AI chips in use is growing 3.4x a year. per Epoch AI
but if each year’s new chip purchases grow only 2.5x, that total will eventually slow to about 2.5x as well.
↳ 引用 @EpochAIResearch (Epoch AI): The computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5× per year since the start of 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, led by Nvidia’s then-new H100 GPU.
Some evidence suggests growth slowed further. But quarterly sales are noisy, and our data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping its next-generation chips, a move that has historically spiked sales. This could be a lull between generations.
See our website for more details on the analysis:
